COVID-19 resources

Author: Marc Bevand


According to Estimating the effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe, Supplementary information, page 4:


  1. Meta-survey of IFR (~0.65%)
  2. Estimation of SARS-CoV-2 mortality during the early stages of an epidemic: A modeling study in Hubei, China, and six regions in Europe (IFR ranging from 0.5% in Switzerland to 1.4% in Lombardy, Italy)
  3. WHO: estimates converging at 0.5-1%
  4. How deadly is the coronavirus?: IFR 0.6-1.0%
  5. Age-adjusted IFR of 0.57% based on Icelandic serosurvey


  1. Assessing the age specificity of infection fatality rates for covid-19
  2. Age-stratified IFR based on the Spanish serosurvey (overall of 1.117%) (The Lancet paper)
  3. Age-stratified IFR based on the China data (overall of 0.657%)
  4. Age-stratified IFR based on Sweden data (overall of 0.58%)

Compared to seasonal influenza or other diseases:

  1. Age-stratified IFR of COVID-19 vs influenza
  2. How the influenza IFR is determined (CDC page)
  3. Proportion of influenza infections that are asymptomatic
  4. Comparing COVID-19 to other diseases

Forecasting deaths and analyzing age trends in Florida

  1. Forecasting deaths 18 days ahead of time
  2. Age-stratified Case Fatality Ratios of COVID-19
  3. Distribution of the times between onset of symptoms and death

Heatmap of cases

  1. Florida
  2. Florida (infections in youngs spreading to elderly)
  3. Washington

Children and COVID-19

  1. Children and COVID-19
  2. Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Icelandic Population

Lockdowns are effective

Third-party studies:

  1. The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic
  2. Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe
  3. Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions
  4. Have deaths from COVID-19 in Europe plateaued due to herd immunity?
  5. The effect of state-level stay-at-home orders on COVID-19 infection rates
  6. Lockdown Led to 70% Drop in NYC COVID Spread, Masks Also Effective
  7. Social Distancing is Effective at Mitigating COVID-19 Transmission in the United States
  8. The effect of stay-at-home orders on COVID-19 cases and fatalities in the United States
  9. When Do Shelter-in-Place Orders Fight COVID-19 Best? Policy Heterogeneity Across States and Adoption Time
  10. Human Mobility Restrictions and the Spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China
  11. Were Urban Cowboys Enough to Control COVID-19? Local Shelter-In-Place Orders and Coronavirus Case Growth
  12. Effects of Government Mandated Social Distancing Measures on Cumulative Incidence of COVID-19 in the United States and its Most Populated Cities
  13. A country level analysis measuring the impact of government actions, country preparedness and socioeconomic factors on COVID-19 mortality and related health outcomes (but inconclusive: "we do not support a definitive judgement on the effectiveness of various public health interventions implemented across different countries")

My analyses:

  1. Animation showing COVID-19 deaths/capita inceasing faster in US states without lockdowns
  2. Scatterplot of US states ranked by COVID19 deaths/capita shows lockdowns work
  3. 36 states and DC (84%) demonstrate a decrease in daily death growth correlated with the timing of the order
  4. Flu season never started thanks to lockdowns

Tweet summarizing some of the links above.

Face masks work

  1. 70 papers and reviews (31 from 2020 alone) showing evidence for face masks
  2. Fabric facemasks can reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2
  3. The First Randomized, Controlled Clinical Trial of Mask Use in Households to Prevent Respiratory Virus Transmission
  4. Community Use Of Face Masks And COVID-19: Evidence From A Natural Experiment Of State Mandates In The US
  5. Physical distancing, face masks, and eye protection to prevent person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis
  6. Unmasked! The effect of face masks on the spread of COVID-19
  7. SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) by the numbers - How do N95 masks block SARS-CoV-2?

Artifacts / permanent dips

  1. "Permanent dip" in hospitalization admission figures
  2. Sweden deaths always appear to be declining


  1. Lag of deaths and hospitalizations
  2. Flaw in Google's and Apple's mobility data baseline
  3. Dying of vs dying with COVID-19
  4. Criteria for counting "probable" deaths
  5. CDC provisional COVID-19 deaths are the most lagging indicator
  6. Key Findings from CEPR Covid Economics: Vetted and real-time papers
  7. Sweden's strategy has failed
  8. Seroprevalence of antibodies in Sweden
  9. GDP growth rate of Sweden vs Nordic countries
  10. Share of infectioned individuals who end up developing detectable antibodies
  11. New York: 60k daily infections before they recorded their first death
  12. Peru's lockdown failure