COVID-19 resources

Author: Marc Bevand


According to Estimating the effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe, Supplementary information, page 4:


  1. How deadly is the coronavirus?: IFR 0.6-1.0%
  2. Meta-survey of IFR (~0.6%)
  3. Age-stratified IFR based on the Spanish serosurvey (overall of 1.117%)
  4. Age-stratified IFR based on the China data (overall of 0.657%)
  5. Case fatality risk by age from COVID-19 in a high testing setting in Latin America: Chile, March-May, 2020
  6. Comparing COVID-19 to other diseases
  7. Age-stratified CFR of COVID-19 vs influenza
  8. How the influenza IFR is determined

Forecasting deaths and analyzing age trends in Florida

  1. Forecasting deaths 18 days ahead of time
  2. Heatmap of Florida cases by age bracket over time

Lockdowns are effective

Third-party studies:

  1. The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic
  2. Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe
  3. Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions
  4. Social Distancing is Effective at Mitigating COVID-19 Transmission in the United States
  5. The effect of stay-at-home orders on COVID-19 cases and fatalities in the United States
  6. When Do Shelter-in-Place Orders Fight COVID-19 Best? Policy Heterogeneity Across States and Adoption Time
  7. Human Mobility Restrictions and the Spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China
  8. Were Urban Cowboys Enough to Control COVID-19? Local Shelter-In-Place Orders and Coronavirus Case Growth
  9. Effects of Government Mandated Social Distancing Measures on Cumulative Incidence of COVID-19 in the United States and its Most Populated Cities

Tweet summarizing some of the links above.

My analyses:

  1. Animation showing COVID-19 deaths/capita inceasing faster in US states without lockdowns
  2. Scatterplot of US states ranked by COVID19 deaths/capita shows lockdowns work
  3. 36 states and DC (84%) demonstrate a decrease in daily death growth correlated with the timing of the order

Face masks work

  1. Community Use Of Face Masks And COVID-19: Evidence From A Natural Experiment Of State Mandates In The US
  2. Physical distancing, face masks, and eye protection to prevent person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis
  3. Unmasked! The effect of face masks on the spread of COVID-19

Interpreting hospitalization admission figures

  1. "Permanent dip" in hospitalization admission figures


  1. Criteria for counting "probable" deaths
  2. CDC provisional COVID-19 deaths are the most lagging indicator
  3. Key Findings from CEPR Covid Economics: Vetted and real-time papers